|Image Courtesy of "Mathhelper"|
Ok, so now I have 15 left that are possible for me to find attractive. Lets say I like a girl for about 2 months before I like someone new. Because I am doing it over a year, this means that I would like 6 girl a year. Lets assume that another girl has 15 boys that they could possibly like also, and that she too likes 6 people a year. Every 2 months she has a 1/15 chance of liking me. Which boils down to about a a 6% chance times 6 times a year, or a 36% chance every year, but that not the end of it. I only have a 30 or so percent chance of realizing that they like me, which is required for me to ask them out. It comes out in the end, that I have a 12% chance a year of getting a girlfriend.
This is where it gets odd though, over half of my friend have a girlfriend or boyfriend and lets for probabilities sake say that relationships last about 6 months, this puts the probability per year up to about 50 percent, a far cry from my measly 12% chance. So where does this disparity between the truth and my estimate come from? I am nearly as attractive as my friends, and they are nearly as smart as I. They are also nearly as socially awkward as I am. I don't quite understand people so I can't say why they have partners and I don't, maybe we have a special mechanism in our limbic system that makes us like people if we know they like us. If that is the case then possibly mine is broken. Or, it could be that they just notice when a person likes them.